Nicholas M Ong 尼古拉米翁

I’ve been meaning to ask this question on “how has the increasing price of oil impact your daily lives?” for weeks now.我已经意义问这个问题就“如何把增加的石油价格影响您的日常生活？ ”周现在。 Just this week, crude oil breached the USD120 per barrel mark.就在本周，原油违反usd120为每桶马克。 Some of you will recall that I anticipated this to happen; but in October 2008 and not 5 months earlier.你们当中有些人会记得，我预计这种情况出现，但在2008年10月，而不是五个月。

Now, some of you will also recall my losses in mutual funds and equities largely due to the sub-prime mortgage issues in the United States.现在，你们当中有些人还记得，我的损失，在互惠基金及股票，主要是由于小组的首要抵押贷款的问题在美国。 I had close to 80% exposure in the China and Indian markets and when the world’s biggest economy is in turmoil, every other world market reacts accordingly.我曾接近80 ％ ，暴露在中国和印度市场的时候，世界上最大的经济正处在风暴中，每一个其他世界市场的反应。 I’m sure many others were in a similar situation to where I was.我敢肯定，许多其他国家在类似情况下的地方，我是。 At one point, my gains and losses statement show a negative whopping 36% loss.在这一点上，我的收益和损失的声明显示，负面高达36 ％的损失。

Well, I have switched my funds around quite a bit.那么，我已转我的资金大约有不少位。 Moving some into major indices like the S&P500 even to cushion the blow and wait the market out.移动的一些主要指数如标普500 ，甚至余量的冲击，等待市场。 While I was doing that, commodities naturally continued to perform well.虽然我是这样做，商品的自然继续有良好表现。 In fact, the growth picked up pace as many investors began to hedge on gold, oil, aluminium, coal and such due to the falling US Dollar.事实上，在增长回升的步伐，因为许多投资者开始对对冲黄金，石油，铝，煤等，由于高空掷美元。 Crude oil had not yet breach the USD100 per barrel mark.原油尚未违反usd100为每桶马克。 All that changed in a matter of weeks and 18 months ago, crude oil was doing the tango at USD50 a barrel.所有这些改变在几个星期内，并在18个月前，原油是这样做的探戈舞曲在usd50桶。

Almost a month back, I decided to cut losses on S&P500 and switch to a commodities focused fund.近一个月回，我决定减少损失，标普500和切换到商品基金的重点。 Remember that I had switched funds to cushion the losses initially.记得当时我转的资金，以减轻损失的初步。 Though falling slower, S&P500 was still dropping like a ton of bricks.虽然下降较慢，标普500仍然是下降一样，一吨的砖头。 Like most other equities, this particular commodities fund had a ‘BIG 10′ on it’s risk level scale (1 to 10) and was considered as risky as can ever be by most fund houses.像其他大部分股票，这特别是商品基金有一个'大10 '关于它的风险水平，规模（ 1至10条）和被视为冒险的作为都不能得到大多数基金的房子。 After 2 weeks, I dumped all my China and India funds for another switch. 2周后，我倾倒我所有的中国和印度的资金，另一个开关。 Maybe I’m missing the point here but the increasing price of oil has not impacted me tremendously.也许我遗漏了一点，在这里，但日益增加的石油价格并没有影响我巨大的。 Simply because I do not drive and use public transport most of the time.只是因为我不驱动器和使用公共交通工具，大部分的时间。

From going 36% under, I have seen some gains in the past month.从去36 ％下，我看到了一些成果在过去的一个月。 My current position is still 16% negative but I have seen an averaged of more than 9% gain since I first switched to commodities.我目前的立场是，还有16 ％的负，但我所看到的一个平均每场以上的9 ％的涨幅，因为我首先切换到商品。 Of course, there were the fees incurred when I did all the fund switching in the past 6 months.当然，有收费的费用时，我所有的基金转换，在过去6个月。 Analyst are predicting USD150 to USD200 a barrel by year’s end.分析师预测， usd150 ，以usd200每桶今年年底完成。

As the bubble gets bigger, something has to give and when the bubble bursts, even those like me who do not drive will feel the whole brunt of it.为获得更大的泡沫，一些已给当泡沫破裂，甚至那些和我一样谁不驱动器会觉得整个首当其冲。 As it is, high oil prices and food shortages have driven up the cost of food by as much as 30% in some cases or even higher.因为它是，高油价和食品短缺带动了成本的食品高达30 ％ ，在某些情况下，甚至更高。 For now, I’m riding on the black and yellow gold rush.现在，我骑在黑色和黄色的淘金潮。 One thing is for sure, I’m going to purchase a car that running on alternative fuels like CNG.一件事是肯定的，我要去购买汽车上运行的替代燃料，例如天然气。 Even the price oil palm oil is going up.即使石油价格棕榈油正在上升。 Yes, that too is a commodity…是的，这也是一种商品…

Wednesday, May 07, 2008周三， 2008年5月7日

Analysis分析

Oil at $200 Will Wreak Havoc石油为200元，将肆虐

Dunstan Prial 邓斯坦湖prial

FOXBusiness foxbusiness

Related Content相关内容

• Goldman Expects $150-$200 Oil 高盛预计， 150元-2 00元油

Imagine paying $5.75 or more for a gallon of gasoline.试想支付$ 5.75或以上为一加仑汽油。 How about $7 for a gallon of heating oil.如何约7元一加仑取暖油。 Now consider shelling out $6.50 for a gallon of milk, or $5 for a dozen eggs.现在考虑炮击了6.50美元，为一加仑牛奶，或五元十几个鸡蛋。

Welcome to the United States of America if the price of oil surges to the once unthinkable level of $200 a barrel.欢迎美国，如果石油价格激增到一旦无法想象的水平， 200元一桶。

“From the consumer perspective, every single item we buy in a store gets there by ship, railcar or truck, all of which have seen dramatic increases in the cost of fuel. “从消费者的角度来看，每一个单一项目，我们买在商店里得到有用船，车或卡车，所有这些都看到显着增加燃料成本。 And that is factored into the price we pay for everything,” said Eric DeGesero, executive vice president of the Fuel Merchants Association of New Jersey.这是考虑到价格我们所付出的一切，说： “李家祥degesero ，执行副总裁燃料商会的新泽西州。

Oil is hitting record highs seemingly every day, and as the price of oil goes so goes the price of gasoline.石油是创纪录高点似乎每一天，作为石油价格有云，使云汽油价格。 Americans are now paying on average about $3.50 a gallon at the pump, and much more (upwards of $4 a gallon) in areas with high gas taxes such as California and New York.美国人现在支付平均约3.50美元一加仑在泵，以及更多（超过4元， 1加仑）的地区，高汽油税，如加州和纽约。

Now, in an almost apocalyptic prediction based on expectations of reduced supply and increased demand, comes the $200 a barrel scenario.现在，在几乎是世界末日的预测的基础上的期望，供应减少和需求增加，来了200元，每桶的情况。

Citing an environment conducive to what it describes as a “super-spike,” the venerable investment bank Goldman Sachs has issued a report that makes a case for just such a price surge.引用一个有利的环境，什么它形容为一个“超级穗， ”老投资银行高盛公司发表了一份报告，使一宗为这样一个价格高涨。

“The possibility of $150-$200 per barrel seems increasingly likely over the next 6-24 months,” the report states. “的可能性， 150元-2 00元每桶，似乎越来越有可能在未来6至2 4个月， ”该报告的国家。

Goldman Sachs’ energy analysts based their prediction on “notable declines” in production levels in important oil-producing regions like Mexico and Russia even as global demand continues to rise.高盛的能源分析师根据他们的预测对“显着下降”的生产水平，在重要的石油生产地区，墨西哥和俄罗斯，甚至作为全球需求继续上升。

None of this bodes well for US consumers – especially when they pull up to the gas pump.没有这个好兆头，美国消费者-尤其是当他们拉起，以气体泵。

Tom Kloza, of the Oil Price Information Service, broke down the bad news.汤姆kloza ，石油价格信息服务，打破了坏消息。

At around $120 a barrel, the current level, motorists will pay:在靠近120元每桶，目前的水平上，驾驶者将支付：

• $3 - $3.15 a gallon wholesale cost 3元-3 .15美元一加仑批发成本
• 45 cents a gallon for taxes and freight costs to distribute the fuel 45美分，每加仑为税收和运费分配燃料
• 15 cents a gallon for the retail mark-up 15美分，每加仑为零售业马克跟进

This brings the retail price of a gallon of gas to around $3.60 to $3.75, where Kloza expects US prices to reach in the next few days.这使零售价每加仑天然气约3.60美元，以$ 3.75 ，其中kloza预期美国的价格，以达到在未来数天。 (Higher on the West Coast and New York, where gas taxes have pushed a gallon of gas above $4.) （较高的西海岸和纽约，其中汽油税推一加仑的气体美元以上的4 ） 。

As the price of crude oil increases, each additional $10 per barrel of crude oil will translate into about 25 cents per gallon at the pump, according to Kloza.由于原油价格的增加，每增加10元，每桶原油将转化为约25美分，每加仑在泵，根据kloza 。

Thus if crude oil hits $150 per barrel, US motorists can expect retail prices to jump about 75cents per gallon, landing somewhere in the $4.50 per gallon range.因此，如果原油安打150元，降至每桶美国的驾车人士，可以预期的零售价格出约75cents每加仑，登陆某处，在4.50美元每加仑的范围。 At $175 per barrel, gas shoots up to $5 a gallon.在175美元，降至每桶气体芽高达500加仑。 And at $200 per barrel it hits $5.75 gallon of gas.和在200元至每桶命中$ 5.75加仑的气体。 (Again, higher on the West Coast and New York.) （再次，较高的西海岸和纽约） 。

All of this could be further impacted if US refining capacity was crimped for any reason — most likely by a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico.所有这一切都可以进一步的影响，如果美国的炼油能力是crimped以任何理由-最有可能由一个飓风在墨西哥海湾。

Kloza said if that happened this year it could add another 75 cents per gallon at the pump, pushing gas well over the $6 level. kloza说，如果发生在今年它可以添加另一个75美分，每加仑在泵，推气井超过6元的水平。

But all of this is hypothetical, Kloza noted .但所有这一切都是假设性的， kloza指出。 “These are all wonderful ‘thought experiments’ and flights of fancy. “这些都是美好的思想实验'和航班花式。 I think these numbers are in the realm of possibility, but not probable,” he said.我认为这些数字是在该领域的可能性，但没有可能， “他说。

Businesses tied to the distribution of fuel and which purchase in bulk will also suffer.企业挂钩的分配燃料和采购批量也将蒙受损失。 Consider tanker trucks rolling up and down the highway carrying 9,000 gallons of gasoline.考虑油轮卡车滚动向上和向下的公路进行九千加仑汽油。 At $150 to $200 a barrel of crude, the price of that shipment comes to about $45,000.在150元至200元1桶的原油，价格，这批来约四点五零万美元。

That’s up from $8,000 less than a decade ago.这是从八千元不到十年前。

In order to cover this rapid increase, trucking companies will have to dramatically change their methods of cash flow, likely requiring clients to put up more money faster so that the trucking companies can pay their suppliers.在为了掩盖这一迅速增加，货运公司将不得不大幅改变其方法的现金流量，可能会要求客户要忍受更多的钱更快，使该货运公司可以支付他们的供应商。

Heating oil companies that also buy in bulk are in the same bind.取暖油公司也购买在批量是在相同的约束。

“Everywhere you turn it’s having a dramatic, negative impact,” said DeGesero. “无处不在，你把它的具有戏剧性，负面影响，说： ” degesero 。 “It’s hard to even conceive of what the world will look like (if oil hits $200 a barrel).” “很难设想，甚至什么样的世界上看起来会像（如石油安打200元桶） ” 。

With so much of peoples’ paychecks disappearing on necessary items such as fuel and food, there will be little money left for discretionary items such as entertainment, travel and electronic gadgets.有这么多的人民paychecks消失，对必要的项目，如燃料和食物，会有一点钱留给酌情项目，如娱乐，旅游和电子工具。

And if US businesses, already bloodied by the credit crunch brought on by the sagging housing market, are forced to take another hit, a severe and prolonged economic downturn is inevitable, said DeGesero.如果美国企业，已经血迹斑斑，由信贷紧缩所带来的由低靡的房屋市场，是被迫采取的另一项打击，严重和长期的经济衰退是不可避免的，说degesero 。

Referring to the anemic first quarter US growth rate of 0.6 percent, DeGesero said “that could look robust if we go to $200 a barrel.”指的是贫血第一季度美国经济增长率为0.6 ％ ， degesero说： “可以看看强劲，如果我们去到200美元每桶” 。